Movie Talk: 2010 Oscars, Part Two

 And now, we get into the actual predictions... wish me luck. I'll need it.

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY. The academy has always been a little too conservative and lacking in a taste for "edgy" to awards Quentin Tarantino movies a "Best Film" award, but Tarantino does have a history of picking up the screenplay awards from them. And for good reason: as I've said in the past, there are Oscar movies where the writing is not their greatest strength, but with Tarantino, that's AWAYS their greatest asset. I'm convinced that once again, Tarantino is going to walk away with this one. "Inglorious Basterds" shows that he's still one of the best writers in contemporary film. When is he going to get around to writing a novel?

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. This one is a real tough choice. I know that "Precious" is going to pick up an acting award for Mo'Nique and I think it deserves one in this category too, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that this award might just go to Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner for "Up In The Air". Like Tarantino, Reitman's films have a history of getting this award (although the script of "Juno" was written by Diablo Cody and not Reitman), and "Up In The Air" has gotten almost nothing but critical raves. The screenplay awards have often gone to critical favorites without much chance of picking up any other awards, and since "Up In The Air" isn't likely to get anything else in the major categories, I'm betting it will get this.

DIRECTOR. One of the most reliable predictors of an Oscar, aside from that intangible thing called "buzz" (which, come to think of it, is often not very reliable at all) is the question: how many other awards has this film or person won? Katherine Bigelow has been picking up almost all of the critics/guilds, etc. awards in sight for "The Hurt Locker", and I'm guessing that she will add an Oscar to that total... and I especially hope so, since this would be my choice also. In addition to the fact that she genuinely deserves it (not always the way the academy works), I'm also guessing that they'll just decide this is finally the year to give the award to a woman for the first time. If anyone has a chance to grab it from her, her ex-husband James Cameron might. But I think it's more likely that it will go to Bigelow.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS. Mo'nique for "Precious". There is no other possibility. If the academy has finally decided that they don't care whether they're perceived as a joke in the eyes of the entire world, they might go with someone else, but I think they'll care enough about their image... and in this case, might even be persuaded by the deserving quality of the work... that the award will go to Mo'Nique. And this is one of the acceptance speeches that I REALLY look forward to hearing.

LEAD ACTRESS. I have not seen "The Blind Side", and there's only the slightest of chances that I will even when it gets to the second run theatres. However, I've seen plenty of clips, and seen all the critics and other awards Sandra Bullock has gotten for her role... and I have to say that this is another one that's all but sown up. Aside from that, the academy has a long history of awarding the big prizes to films that deal with racial issues in a safe, reassuring way... "Guess Who's Coming To Dinner" is going to get an Oscar any day before Spike Lee's "Do The Right Thing". As much as I love "Precious", I think it's a little too raw for the academy to give it anything other than supporting actress, but "The Blind Side" is right up their alley. They also like to award performers formerly perceived to be fluffy commercial stars who suddenly show a little more depth, as Bullock apparently does here. So this year, this award is hers.

SUPPORTING ACTOR. This will be the one other category other than original screenplay where the academy will recognize "Inglorious Basterds" by giving this award to Christopher Waltz. And well they should. His performance so outshines that of anyone else in this category that there really is no other logical choice. And all the pre-Oscar awards he's been getting for it don't hurt his chances, either. Sometimes the ones who actually deserve the award get it, and I'm pretty sure that's going to happen for Christopher Waltz this year.

LEAD ACTOR. In my "should win" piece, I mentioned how difficult it was for me to ignore Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" in favor of Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker". I don't think the academy is going to have any problem with that. Bridges has been nominated four times previously without winning, and it's just barely possible that the Oscar voters are getting a little tired themselves of either handing out a lifetime achievement award to a never-won veteran, or giving them an Oscar for a role that's less than their best. So this year it will likely go to a long-time favorite for a role they actually gave an Oscar-worthy performance in. That will be a frefreshing change.

BEST FILM. Once again, as in the director category, it's a tight race between "The Hurt Locker" and "Avatar". The voters might possibly go for the big commercial hit to show that they haven't lost touch with the general public, but I don't think they will. Although it has happened on a few rare occasions, the Best Film award GENERALLY goes to the movie directed by the winner of the Best Director Oscar. I think that will happen once more this year, and for once the "Best Film" winner really will be the best film. Now, if I could only believe that selecting something a little less "Hollywood" for several of the big prizes means that the academy is finally loosening up a bit. Maybe... just MAYBE.