Movie Talk: 2012 Oscar Picks

These picks, both the "will" and "should" wins, are not necessarily the movies and performances that I think are the very best of the year... they're limited to what the academy chose to nominate, and in some cases my personal choice for Best Of The Year wasn't nominated at all. Also, in some cases ("My Week With Marilyn", "Albert Nobbs", Beginners") I haven't yet seen the film in question... thus, in the event that I do see those films and think they're more deserving, this list will be revised (I'll be seeing "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" later today). So here we go...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Alexander Payne/Max Factor/Jim Rasch, "The Descendents". It is a truly fine script with a lot of powerful insights into dysfunctional family life, and perhaps more importantly it's been picking one writing award after another, and is considered by most prognosticators to be a virtual lock in this category. I haven't seen anything that would make me disagree with that.

Should win: As I said, "The Descendents" is a great script and I wouldn't be upset if it won. However, John Logan's script for Martin Scorcese's "Hugo" is one of the best book to film adaptations in years, capturing all the excitement and magic of the wonderful book by Brian Selznick. It makes every character come alive, immerses you in another place and time like few others, and reminds you of how magical movies can be. For me, that puts it on top.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Woody Allen, "Midnight In Paris". It's almost a joke to even think about betting against a Woody Allen screenplay when one is up for an award. Add to that the fact that this is his best one in years, everyone seems to love it, and it's ALSO been picking up the awards, and it would seem to be a lock. (Any year without an Allen script, I would have said "Bridesmaids".)

Should win: Michael Hazanavicius, "The Artist". It isn't really all that original, what with all the borrowings from "Singing in The Rain" and "A Star is Born", among others. But it is, like "Hugo", a deeply heartfelt, joyous and tremendously fun tribute to the power of the movies. "The Artist" will pick up a bunch of other awards this year, but I think the academy will probably feel the love should be spread around a bit in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Octavia Spencer, "The Help". One of the real stand-outs in a brilliant cast, Spencer helped make "The Help" the authentically-felt powerful tale that it was. There is no way that a film loved by both the public and the critics as much as this one will go award-free, and this looks like its best and more sure shot... and most deserved.

Should win: Spencer. Like I said, most deserved.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners". There's no reason to think that Plummer won't repeat his Golden Globe win at the Oscars this year. Add to that his multi-decade career with multiple award-worthy performances and a surprisingly small number of nominations... with no awards... and this is likely going to be another of those times when the Academy gives an award as much for a career as for a specific role.

Should win: Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close". The movie as a whole is middling, but Von Sydow, an actor blessed with one of the great voices, accomplishes as stunning and powerhouse performance here without speaking a word and gives a virtual master's class in great acting. It's too bad that Oscars are not often given for great performances in movies that overall don't live up to their promise.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Michelle Williams. "My Week With Marilyn". I had originally picked Viola Davis here, but then I saw "Marilyn". Williams sets a new high standard for performances as a real person, and doesn't simply perform the role or imitate Marilyn, she truly becomes her. Everything that the icon known as Marilyn ever was (the talent, the pain, everything) lives again, and if the academy doesn't recognize this achievement they're crazier than i thought they were.

Should Win: Michelle Williams.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist". He seems to be unstoppable, and I don't think any other leading role is likely to get in the way of the runaway train that appears to be taking him to the podium at the Oscars this year. And it WAS a truly remarkable performance, unlike any other in theatres this past year.

Should Win: George Clooney, "The Descendents". The film that has proven even more than a number of other remarkable performances over the years that Clooney really is an amazingly good actor. Touching, painful, funny, Clooney runs the gamut in this role and does so almost perfectly. He's also, I think, the only other actor who has any kind of chance against Jean du Jardin.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: This is one of the tougher categories, with a number of deserving winners. But I'm guessing that the apparently unbeatable force that is "The Artist" (I haven't seen any list of Oscar picks yet that doesn't refer to it as "the film to beat") will sweep it into the Best Picture spot,and I don't think this is going to be one of those years where the winners of Best Picture and Best Director will be two different movies.Michael Hazanavicius, this is your year.

Should win: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo". If Scorsese hadn't finally won his Oscar for "The Departed", I think he'd have had a stronger chance to pick up one for "Hugo". He takes on a style of film that absolutely nobody would have thought he could pull off, and makes it his most personal film ever. And one of his very best. Wondering if Scorsese still had the touch? See "Hugo" and be amazed.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: It's pointless to even speculate if anything other than "The Artist" has a chance. I do think there are better movies this year, but I doubt any of them will be able to beat this film. For the first time since the very first Oscars ever, over 80 years ago, the winner will be a silent film, the first one that most of the people viewing it will have ever seen.

Should win: "Hugo". The film that DESERVES to be Scorsese's second Oscar winner. In a year filled with so many mediocre children's and family films, the man who gave us "raging Bull" and "Goodfellas" directs one of the best in ages. A marvelous work of wonder. Even though it won't pick up the top award, moviegoers for decades to come will appreciate its power.